Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Dairon BlancoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching2.1 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Candelario homered to left (360 feet).13–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 213–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 113–1
- 5Pasquantino scored, DeJong safe at first on fielding error by shortstop De La Cruz, Fermin to second, Renfroe to third.13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–0
- 4Garcia hit sacrifice fly to left, Hampson scored.12–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 4Blanco singled to center, Fermin scored, Hampson to third.11–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–0
- 3Pasquantino doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.10–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 110–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–0
- 3Blanco homered to left center (405 feet), Renfroe scored, Fermin scored and DeJong scored.9–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 3DeJong singled to left, Perez scored, Fermin to second, Renfroe to third.5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Fermin walked, Pasquantino scored, Renfroe to second, Perez to third.4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 44–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Blanco homered to center (408 feet), Fermin scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Perez hit sacrifice fly to left, Garcia scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML KC +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +19 Elo | CIN 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 15th of 3029–30 | Road vs home | 31–3220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–52 | 68–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 30–30 | 29–33 |
| Underdog | 38–22 | 39–21 |
| Overs–unders | 54–65–1 | 57–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 1–3 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.