Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lopez sacrificed to pitcher, Adell scored.9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 9Adell doubled to left, Rendon scored, Adell to third.8–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 18–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–5
- 7Pasquantino singled to right, Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.7–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 7Witt Jr. doubled to left, Hampson scored, Garcia to third.7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7O'Hoppe singled to center, Neto scored, Schanuel to third.7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 7Pillar hit sacrifice fly to center, Ward scored, Schanuel to second, Neto to third.6–2
- 7Pitch 14 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 13 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball 36–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Rendon singled to right, Pillar scored, O'Hoppe to second.5–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 63%
- ML LAA +160 / KC -190
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- KC: Elo 61.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -170
- LAA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +81 Elo | KC 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 39–255th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–59 | 71–52 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–24 | 31–30 |
| Underdog | 60–35 | 40–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–65 | 55–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–6 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.