Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Realmuto grounded out to shortstop, Wilson scored.11–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 311–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 211–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–2
- 8Turner singled to right, Rojas scored.10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–2
- 8Hays doubled to left, Marsh scored.9–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–2
- 8Realmuto homered to left center (424 feet), Castellanos scored and Stott scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7Fermin hit sacrifice fly to right, Renfroe scored, Massey to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Realmuto homered to left (393 feet), Castellanos scored and Stott scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 35–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Fermin singled to right, Massey scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Harper doubled to center, Turner scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Turner singled to right, Schwarber scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -115 / KC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +12 Elo | PHI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 41–265th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–65 | 73–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 47–52 | 33–31 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 40–22 |
| Overs–unders | 59–68–1 | 57–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.