Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Walter PenningtonPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jhonkensy NoelBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Semien grounded out to second, Langford scored, Kelly to third.5–13
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–13
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–13
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–13
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–13
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–13
- 9Kelly doubled to left, Jung scored, Langford to third.4–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–13
- 8Brennan singled to right, Thomas scored, Brennan out stretching at second.3–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–13
- 7Bo Naylor homered to right center (388 feet).3–12
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–12
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–12
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–12
- 7Semien singled to center, Taveras scored.3–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–11
- 7Taveras doubled to left, Langford scored.2–11
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–11
- 6J. Naylor homered to right center (418 feet).1–11
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–11
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML TEX +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- TEX +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −2 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +32 Elo | CLE 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 3026–38 | Road vs home | 38–213rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–76 | 66–61 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–51 | 31–39 |
| Underdog | 30–25 | 35–22 |
| Overs–unders | 59–69–1 | 65–60–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–5 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.