Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4
- Ben LivelyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-3
- Colin ReaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Haase grounded out to shortstop, Frelick scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Adames singled to left, Turang scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML CLE +105 / MIL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +53 Elo | MIL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3034–31 | Road vs home | 37–244th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–58 | 66–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–38 | 27–38 |
| Underdog | 34–20 | 39–17 |
| Overs–unders | 62–59–2 | 69–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–4 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.