Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Contreras homered to left (380 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4J. Naylor homered to right center (360 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Sánchez doubled to left, Turang scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML CLE +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 3.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +2 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +30 Elo | MIL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 36–245th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–58 | 66–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–38 | 27–37 |
| Underdog | 33–20 | 39–17 |
| Overs–unders | 62–58–2 | 69–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.