Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4
- Javier AssadPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Jhonkensy NoelBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Noel homered to left (430 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Rocchio reached on bunt single to pitcher, Giménez scored, Noel to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Swanson hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoerner scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML CHC +130 / CLE -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- CHC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −4 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +10 Elo | CLE 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–34 | Road vs home | 36–203rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–61 | 63–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–39 | 30–37 |
| Underdog | 43–22 | 33–19 |
| Overs–unders | 54–64–1 | 61–56–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.