Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Benintendi homered to right (363 feet).7–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 37–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 5Benintendi homered to right (356 feet).7–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 4Lopez singled to right, Fletcher scored.7–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 37–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 4Baldwin grounded out to first, Lee scored, Fletcher to second.7–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 17–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 4Fletcher singled to center, Sheets scored, Lee to third.7–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 4Vaughn homered to center (413 feet).7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Amaya grounded out to shortstop, Swanson scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 37–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 3Hoerner homered to left (359 feet).6–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 36–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -145 / CHW +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 64.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- CHW +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +13 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +102 Elo | CHC 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 25th of 3025–33 | Road vs home | 17–4030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–58 | 53–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–36 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 43–22 | 47–60 |
| Overs–unders | 52–63–1 | 53–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–1 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.