Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jhonkensy NoelBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Naylor singled to left, Ramírez scored, Brennan to second.8–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–9
- 8Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to center, Happ scored, Wisdom to third.8–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 28–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 18–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–8
- 7Swanson doubled to left, Hoerner scored on error, Suzuki scored and Paredes scored, Swanson safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Rocchio.7–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 7Hoerner reached on infield single to shortstop, Happ scored, Paredes to second, Suzuki to third.4–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 6Noel homered to left center (378 feet).3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Fry singled to left, Ramírez scored, Fry out stretching at second.3–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5Kwan homered to right (373 feet), Hedges scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Noel homered to left (400 feet), Ramírez scored and J. Naylor scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 4J. Naylor singled to right, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML CHC -125 / CLE +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 48.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 3.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +10 Elo | CLE 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3027–33 | Road vs home | 35–203rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–60 | 62–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–38 | 30–37 |
| Underdog | 43–22 | 32–19 |
| Overs–unders | 53–64–1 | 60–56–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 1–2 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.