Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting2-4
- Chris FlexenPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Amaya singled to left, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–1
- 5Paredes doubled to left, Bellinger scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Baldwin singled to left, Vargas scored, Julks to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 67%
- ML CHC -235 / CHW +195
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 70.1%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -207
- CHW +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1383 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −33 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +148 Elo | CHC 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 70.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 17–4130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–59 | 54–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–37 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 43–22 | 48–60 |
| Overs–unders | 53–63–1 | 54–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–1 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.