Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Giménez doubled to center, Ramírez scored and Thomas scored.1–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5Ramírez grounded out to first, Brennan scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Brennan tripled to right, Kwan scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Giménez singled to right, J. Naylor scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4J. Naylor doubled to right, Ramírez scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Suzuki scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML CHC +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- CHC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −4 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–35 | Road vs home | 37–201st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–61 | 63–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–39 | 30–38 |
| Underdog | 44–22 | 33–19 |
| Overs–unders | 54–65–1 | 61–57–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 1–4 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.