Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting3-5
- Walker BuehlerPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Chourio singled to right, Ortiz scored on fielding error by right fielder Betts, Chourio to second.4–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 7Rojas singled to center, Betts scored, Freeman to third.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 4Ortiz grounded into fielder's choice to third, Mitchell scored on fielding error by third baseman E. Hernández.3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 2Chourio reached on infield single to third, Turang scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 2Turang tripled to right, Frelick scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2Bauers homered to right (381 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 1Kiermaier doubled to right, Freeman scored, T. Hernández to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1E. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Betts scored, Freeman to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1T. Hernández walked, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second, Betts to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 41–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / MIL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 48.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −6 | LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIL: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +9 Elo | MIL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 6th of 3032–27 | Road vs home | 33–248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–62 | 64–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–52 | 26–36 |
| Underdog | 6–10 | 38–17 |
| Overs–unders | 63–56–1 | 67–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–2 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.