Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10T. Hernández singled to right, E. Hernández scored, Pages to second.5–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 10E. Hernández doubled to left, Rojas scored.5–5
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 35–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 10Reynolds singled to center, Taylor scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 35–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8McCutchen homered to left (408 feet), Taylor scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 3McCutchen homered to right (378 feet), Bae scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2T. Hernández doubled to left, E. Hernández scored and Pages scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Rosario singled to left, Smith scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Smith doubled to right, Freeman scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML PIT +235 / LAD -290
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.2%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -249
- PIT +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −2 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +87 Elo | LAD 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3029–29 | Road vs home | 37–212nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–55 | 56–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–31 | 50–51 |
| Underdog | 43–24 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 56–58 | 61–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–7 LAD in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.