Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cruz singled to center, Reynolds scored.5–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 5E. Hernández homered to left center (371 feet), Smith scored.4–9
- 5Pitch 11 : Ball In Play4–9
- 5Pitch 10 : Ball 34–9
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball 24–9
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 5Bart homered to left center (379 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored and Reynolds scored.4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 4T. Hernández singled to right, Heyward scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Cruz homered to right center (396 feet).1–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 3Rojas singled to left, Smith scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 3Smith singled to right, T. Hernández scored and Freeman scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML PIT +180 / LAD -215
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.5%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -191
- PIT +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +9 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +67 Elo | LAD 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 35–213rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–53 | 54–61 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–31 | 48–51 |
| Underdog | 43–22 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 55–57 | 60–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–5 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.