Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- River RyanPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hayes homered to left center (382 feet).1–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5T. Hernández homered to center (427 feet).0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Lux singled to right, Ahmed scored and T. Hernández scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Lux doubled to center, T. Hernández scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 50%
- ML PIT -110 / LAD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -100
- PIT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 3.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +9 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: River Ryan: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +73 Elo | LAD 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3029–28 | Road vs home | 36–213rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–54 | 55–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–31 | 49–51 |
| Underdog | 43–23 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 56–57 | 61–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–6 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.