Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ortiz reached on infield single to third, Adames scored, Hoskins to third.7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 4Pages homered to left (360 feet), Rojas scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4E. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Lux homered to right center (413 feet), T. Hernández scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Contreras homered to left center (400 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Ohtani homered to right center (413 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Smith homered to left (412 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML LAD -120 / MIL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 45.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +7 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +28 Elo | MIL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 8th of 3031–27 | Road vs home | 33–236th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–62 | 64–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 51–52 | 26–36 |
| Underdog | 6–10 | 38–16 |
| Overs–unders | 62–56–1 | 66–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–2 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.