Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Betts singled to right, Ohtani scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Contreras homered to right center (407 feet), Chourio scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Ohtani homered to left center (424 feet), Kiermaier scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Betts homered to left (375 feet), E. Hernández scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML LAD -120 / MIL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 47.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +20 Elo | MIL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 33–226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–62 | 64–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 50–52 | 26–36 |
| Underdog | 6–10 | 38–15 |
| Overs–unders | 62–55–1 | 66–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–2 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.