Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fry homered to center (410 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 33–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 8Ramírez homered to right (418 feet), Brennan scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 32–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Turang singled to center, Ortiz scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 3Mitchell doubled to right, Black scored, Contreras to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 1Adames homered to right center (431 feet), Black scored and Contreras scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / MIL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 46.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −13 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +25 Elo | MIL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 3034–29 | Road vs home | 35–246th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–57 | 65–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–38 | 26–37 |
| Underdog | 33–19 | 39–17 |
| Overs–unders | 61–58–2 | 68–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.