Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Gavin LuxBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoskins grounded out to shortstop, Contreras scored, Adames to third.4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 8Black grounded out to third, Mitchell scored, Adames to second, Contreras to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Adames singled to left, Chourio scored, Contreras to second, Mitchell to third.4–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6E. Hernández singled to right, Lux scored, Rojas to second.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Lux singled to center, Freeman scored, Smith to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 2Pages doubled to left, Rojas scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Heyward grounded out to second, Lux scored, Rojas to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 1Contreras homered to left (417 feet).0–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Chourio homered to center (421 feet), Turang scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 56%
- ML LAD -140 / MIL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 47.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -128
- MIL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 3.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +17 | LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +19 Elo | MIL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 34–248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–62 | 64–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 52–52 | 26–37 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 38–17 |
| Overs–unders | 63–57–1 | 67–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–3 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.