Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jhonkensy NoelBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Noel homered to right center (370 feet).1–8
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 7Judge homered to right (356 feet).0–8
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 30–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 20–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 4Soto doubled to left, Torres scored, Verdugo scored and Peraza scored, Soto out stretching at third.0–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 3Judge homered to right center (378 feet), Soto scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Soto homered to center (427 feet), Torres scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 65%
- ML CLE +175 / NYY -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -186
- CLE +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 4.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −9 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +29 Elo | NYY 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3035–32 | Road vs home | 32–2815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–59 | 66–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–38 | 40–54 |
| Underdog | 35–21 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 63–60–2 | 71–53–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–6 NYY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.