New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-3
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Meadows singled to left, McKinstry scored.2–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 10McKinstry singled to right, Sweeney scored.2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 10LeMahieu singled to center, Volpe scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Jung singled to left, Keith scored.1–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Torres scored on Skubal wild pitch.1–0
- 6Torres scored on Skubal wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML NYY +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- DET: Elo 47.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +18 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +14 Elo | NYY 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| NYY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+0.9 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–58 | 65–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 40–53 | 15–31 |
| Underdog | 25–5 | 50–27 |
| Overs–unders | 70–52–1 | 65–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–3 DET in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.