Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan SammonsPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Baddoo doubled to center, Meadows scored, Malloy to third.2–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Carpenter homered to right (385 feet), Vierling scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Rodríguez singled to left, Robles scored, Raleigh to second, Arozarena to third.2–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Polanco singled to left, Moore scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML SEA -140 / DET +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Beau Brieske: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +5 Elo | SEA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 27–3126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–68 | 62–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 30–50 | 15–31 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 47–26 |
| Overs–unders | 50–66–2 | 65–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–6 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.