New York Mets at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4
- Sean ManaeaPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Justin TurnerBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turner singled to left, Arozarena scored, Raleigh to second.0–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Haniger singled to center, Turner scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Turner doubled to right, Arozarena scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Arozarena doubled to left, Robles scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML NYM +115 / SEA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- NYM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −8 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +3 Elo | SEA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 3030–26 | Road vs home | 35–269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–60 | 48–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–38 | 28–50 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 57–57 | 48–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.