New York Mets at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Ryan BlissBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Raleigh singled to right, Rivas scored and Robles scored, Arozarena to third.0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 7Rivas singled to right, Garver scored and Moore scored.0–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Bliss homered to left center (410 feet), Haniger scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML NYM +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- NYM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −5 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +2 Elo | SEA 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.81st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3030–25 | Road vs home | 34–269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–59 | 47–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–38 | 27–50 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 57–56 | 48–64–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.