New York Mets at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arozarena hit by pitch, Rojas scored, Robles to second, Rivas to third.1–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–12
- 7Robles walked, Raley scored, Rivas to second, Rojas to third.1–11
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 41–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–11
- 6Raleigh homered to right center (407 feet), Rivas scored and Robles scored.1–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 6Robles reached on infield single to second, Raley scored and Rojas scored on throwing error by second baseman McNeil, Robles to second, Rivas safe at third on error.1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 6Rivas singled to right, Polanco scored, Rojas to second, Raley to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6McNeil homered to right (349 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Raleigh homered to right center (415 feet), Arozarena scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Arozarena reached on infield single to shortstop, Canzone scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Polanco homered to center (416 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML NYM +105 / SEA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | 0 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +40 Elo | SEA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 36–268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–61 | 49–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–38 | 29–50 |
| Underdog | 28–23 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 57–58 | 48–66–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–3 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.