Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting3-5, 1 HR, 7 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Báez homered to left center (370 feet), McKinstry scored.1–15
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–15
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–15
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–15
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–15
- 6Rogers doubled to center, Meadows scored, Rogers out stretching at third.1–13
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–13
- 6Urshela homered to left (364 feet).1–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–12
- 4Rogers homered to right (365 feet), Keith scored, Urshela scored and Madris scored.1–11
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–11
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–11
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–11
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–11
- 4Carpenter homered to right (392 feet), Vierling scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 4Haniger singled to center, Turner scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Rogers doubled to right, Madris scored and Urshela scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Madris reached on infield single to second, Keith scored, Urshela to second.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Carpenter homered to left (372 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Madris singled to center, Vierling scored, Urshela to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML SEA +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- DET: Elo 49.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.2 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +16 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +5 Elo | SEA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–30 | Road vs home | 26–3127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–67 | 61–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 30–50 | 14–31 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 47–26 |
| Overs–unders | 49–66–2 | 64–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–5 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.