New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting2-3
- Carlos RodonPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Ibáñez doubled to left, Vierling scored and McKinstry scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2McKinstry singled to right, Torkelson scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Keith singled to center, Malloy scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 68%
- ML NYY -245 / DET +200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.7%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -213
- DET +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.6 – 3.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −7 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +47 Elo | NYY 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 1st of 3041–23 | Road vs home | 29–3225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–57 | 64–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 40–52 | 15–31 |
| Underdog | 25–5 | 49–27 |
| Overs–unders | 70–51–1 | 65–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–2 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.