Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Carson KellyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9García singled to center, Langford scored, Duran to third.7–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 37–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 8Kelly homered to left (388 feet), Taveras scored.6–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–8
- 8Lowe homered to right center (411 feet).4–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 7Judge homered to right center (374 feet).3–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 7Soto homered to right center (406 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Semien grounded into fielder's choice to third, García scored and Kelly scored, Smith to second, Smith safe at third on fielding error by third baseman Chisholm Jr..3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6LeMahieu hit sacrifice fly to right, Torres scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Seager doubled to right, Smith scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Stanton homered to left (405 feet), LeMahieu scored and Judge scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML TEX +125 / NYY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- TEX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 5.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −5 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +51 Elo | NYY 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–35 | Road vs home | 31–2714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–69 | 62–55 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–45 | 37–50 |
| Underdog | 25–24 | 25–5 |
| Overs–unders | 53–63–1 | 67–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–4 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.