Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Smith homered to right center (410 feet), García scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 10Peña hit by pitch, Altuve scored, Y. Diaz to second, Alvarez to third.3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Seager homered to right center (390 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 8Peña reached on infield single to third, Altuve scored, Y. Diaz to second, Alvarez to third.2–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Taveras hit sacrifice fly to left, Lowe scored on error, García safe at third on throwing error by left fielder McCormick.1–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Bregman homered to left center (393 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML HOU -110 / TEX -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 47.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -100
- HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −10 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +20 Elo | HOU 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 20th of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 30–2514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–55 | 47–65 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 33–44 | 23–44 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 45–60–3 | 51–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 17–13 TEX in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 30.