Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching8.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Seager homered to right center (411 feet), Smith scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Alvarez homered to right center (436 feet), Bregman scored.4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Meyers singled to left, Peña scored, Singleton to second.2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Meyers singled to right, Peña scored, Dezenzo to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML HOU -125 / TEX +105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +16 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU 0 Elo | HOU 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 21st of 3023–29 | Road vs home | 31–2511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–55 | 47–66 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 33–44 | 23–45 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 45–61–3 | 51–61–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 17–14 TEX in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 31.