Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Victor CaratiniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Heim singled to left, Langford scored, García to second.6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 8Bregman singled to right, Dezenzo scored, Dubón to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6Taveras hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Lowe tripled to left, Langford scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Semien homered to left (396 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Altuve singled to center, Dubón scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Dubón doubled to left, Dezenzo scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Caratini homered to right (373 feet).3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Alvarez homered to center (415 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Peña grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bregman scored, Y. Diaz out at second, Alvarez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML HOU -130 / TEX +110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −22 | HOU: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jose Urena: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +4 Elo | HOU 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 20th of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 31–2614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–55 | 47–67 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 34–44 | 23–45 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders | 45–62–3 | 51–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 18–14 TEX in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 32.