Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (390 feet).9–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 8Stanton homered to center (451 feet), Judge scored.9–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 7Kelly singled to center, Taveras scored.9–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Taveras doubled to center, García scored and Lowe scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 6Seager homered to right (372 feet), Taveras scored and Kelly scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, García scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 6Kelly walked, Lowe scored, Taveras to second, García to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 42–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4García singled to left, Langford scored, Lowe to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Torres singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML TEX +150 / NYY -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -161
- TEX +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 5.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +7 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +71 Elo | NYY 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.11st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 26th of 3023–35 | Road vs home | 31–2613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–69 | 62–54 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–45 | 37–49 |
| Underdog | 24–24 | 25–5 |
| Overs–unders | 52–63–1 | 66–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–4 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.