Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4
- Grant AndersonPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to center (416 feet).0–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 5Soto grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rice scored, Verdugo out at second, Cabrera to third.0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Wells singled to center, Verdugo scored and Judge scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4Judge doubled to left, Grisham scored, Verdugo to third.0–4
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 30–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Wells doubled to center, Judge scored and Soto scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Torres singled to right, Soto scored, Judge to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML TEX +125 / NYY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- TEX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +6 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +51 Elo | NYY 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3023–34 | Road vs home | 30–2614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–68 | 61–54 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–45 | 36–49 |
| Underdog | 24–23 | 25–5 |
| Overs–unders | 52–62–1 | 66–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–3 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.