New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting3-4, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Robert Jr. singled to center, Julks scored, Sosa to third.4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Soto homered to right center (406 feet).4–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Soto homered to left center (416 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Soto homered to left (360 feet), Verdugo scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 71%
- ML NYY -290 / CHW +235
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 63.5%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -249
- CHW +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +10 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +96 Elo | NYY 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 71.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+0.9 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 1st of 3038–23 | Road vs home | 18–4230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–57 | 56–63 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–52 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 25–5 | 50–60 |
| Overs–unders | 69–49–1 | 55–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–5 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.