New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting4-5, 4 RBI
- Ky BushPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sheets reached on infield single to second, Vaughn scored.2–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–12
- 7Baldwin homered to right (350 feet), Fletcher scored and Julks scored.2–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–11
- 7Julks singled to left, Lee scored, Fletcher to second.2–8
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 32–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 7Fletcher singled to center, Sheets scored, Lee to second.2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 12–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 7Sheets doubled to left, Vaughn scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 5Sheets doubled to left, Benintendi scored, Vaughn to third.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Volpe reached on infield single to shortstop, Chisholm Jr. scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Lopez singled to left, Fletcher scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Lee homered to left (407 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 75%
- ML NYY -360 / CHW +285
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 68.3%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -301
- CHW +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 6.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +7 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Ky Bush: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +134 Elo | NYY 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 72.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 1st of 3038–22 | Road vs home | 17–4230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–56 | 55–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–51 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 25–5 | 49–60 |
| Overs–unders | 68–49–1 | 54–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–4 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.