New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wells homered to right (393 feet).10–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 210–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 8Judge homered to left (361 feet), Verdugo scored and Soto scored.9–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 39–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 8Verdugo doubled to left, Cabrera scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Cabrera singled to center, Volpe scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Wells singled to left, Soto scored and Judge scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to right, Cabrera scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Sheets singled to right, Vaughn scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 68%
- ML NYY -245 / CHW +200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 66.4%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -213
- CHW +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.6 – 3.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −2 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +119 Elo | NYY 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 69.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+0.9 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 1st of 3039–23 | Road vs home | 18–4330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–57 | 56–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–52 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 25–5 | 50–61 |
| Overs–unders | 69–50–1 | 55–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–5 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.