Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis GilPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 12Judge doubled to center, Torres scored and Cabrera scored.9–5
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball 29–5
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 19–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 12Noel reached on infield single to first, Fry scored.9–3
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–3
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball 29–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 12Fry tripled to center, Kwan scored, Ramírez scored and Freeman scored.8–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–3
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 12Ramírez singled to center, Thomas scored, Kwan to second.5–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 12Thomas doubled to right, Schneemann scored.4–3
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 4Volpe doubled to center, Trevino scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Rocchio homered to center (400 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Schneemann singled to right, Noel scored, Schneemann to second, Giménez to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Bo Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to first, Noel scored, Schneemann to second.1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML CLE +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- CLE +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −3 | CLE: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +31 Elo | NYY 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 32–2715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–59 | 66–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–38 | 40–53 |
| Underdog | 34–21 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 62–60–2 | 70–53–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–6 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.