Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7García doubled to right, Smith scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4Bo Naylor singled to right, Giménez scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 34–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3Schneemann singled to center, Rocchio scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 2Thomas hit sacrifice fly to center, Brennan scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Seager doubled to right, Semien scored and Taveras scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Taveras singled to right, Lowe scored and Jung scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML TEX +125 / CLE -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -135
- TEX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.4 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +16 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +47 Elo | CLE 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 26th of 3025–38 | Road vs home | 38–203rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–76 | 66–60 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–51 | 31–38 |
| Underdog | 29–25 | 35–22 |
| Overs–unders | 58–69–1 | 64–60–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–5 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.