Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Carson KellyBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Farmer hit sacrifice fly to center, Santana scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 8Castro singled to center, Julien scored, Vázquez scored and Martin scored on throwing error by center fielder Taveras, Castro to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Kelly doubled to center, Heim scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Larnach homered to center (403 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Kelly singled to left, Langford scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML MIN +120 / TEX -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 47.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +15 Elo | MIN 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 6th of 3033–29 | Road vs home | 31–2918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–62 | 52–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–46 | 23–46 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders | 62–59 | 57–65–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–3 TEX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.