Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Refsnyder singled to center, Rafaela scored, Yoshida to second, Gasper to third.4–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 10Valdez hit a ground rule double, González scored.4–4
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 10Smith grounded out to shortstop, Semien scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 7Seager homered to right (384 feet), Heim scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5D. Jansen walked, Devers scored, González to second, Wong to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 41–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5González walked, Hamilton scored, Wong to second, Devers to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 41–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Semien singled to center, Taveras scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Sogard hit sacrifice fly to right, Wong scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML TEX +105 / BOS -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −4 | TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +1 Elo | TEX 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–36 | Road vs home | 27–3226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–69 | 52–65 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–45 | 20–43 |
| Underdog | 26–24 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders | 54–63–1 | 61–54–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–5 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.