Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- David HamiltonBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Devers grounded into fielder's choice to third, Duran scored, Refsnyder out at third.8–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 9Y. Diaz homered to left center (448 feet), McCormick scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 9Alvarez doubled to right, Bregman scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Peña singled to center, Alvarez scored, Singleton to second, Y. Diaz to third.5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Singleton singled to center, Bregman scored, Y. Diaz to second, Alvarez to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 7Altuve homered to left (397 feet), Meyers scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Sogard scored on pickoff error by pitcher Blanco, Hamilton picked off third.1–3
- 4Sogard scored on pickoff error by pitcher Blanco, Hamilton picked off third.1–3
- 2Hamilton doubled to center, Rafaela scored and Sogard scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Alvarez grounded into double play, first to shortstop to pitcher, Altuve scored, Bregman out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML HOU +115 / BOS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +5 Elo | HOU 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 27–2922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–55 | 52–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–44 | 20–41 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders | 46–62–3 | 59–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–2 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.