Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Lucas SimsPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Yoshida singled to center, Hamilton scored, Abreu to second, Duran to third.10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–2
- 6Abreu walked, Rafaela scored, Duran to second, Hamilton to third.10–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 410–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 310–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 210–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 6Peña homered to left (396 feet), Diaz scored.10–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 6Y. Diaz doubled to center, Alvarez scored and Bregman scored.8–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 38–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 28–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 5Meyers singled to right, Peña scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5Alvarez homered to center (428 feet).5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 5Bregman homered to left center (404 feet), León scored and Altuve scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Dubón scored on Bernardino wild pitch, Altuve to third on wild pitch by Bernardino.1–0
- 3Dubón scored on Bernardino wild pitch, Altuve to third on wild pitch by Bernardino.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML HOU -145 / BOS +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- BOS +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −2 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +17 Elo | HOU 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3027–29 | Road vs home | 27–3124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–55 | 52–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–44 | 20–43 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders | 47–63–3 | 60–54–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–2 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.