Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 13 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brad KellerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Abreu singled to right, Rafaela scored and Duran scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Dezenzo homered to left center (437 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Yoshida homered to right (425 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Bregman homered to center (423 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Alvarez homered to right (422 feet), Bregman scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5D. Jansen homered to left (393 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Alvarez homered to right center (411 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML HOU +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.2 – 5.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Josh Winckowski: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +2 Elo | HOU 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 3026–29 | Road vs home | 27–3023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–55 | 52–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–44 | 20–42 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders | 47–62–3 | 60–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–2 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.