Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8González sacrificed into double play, left to third to shortstop, Smith scored, Sogard thrown out at third.4–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 14–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 8Sogard singled to right, Abreu scored and Wong scored, Smith to third.4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 6Lowe walked, Seager scored, García to second, Smith to third.4–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 44–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6García walked, Semien scored, Smith to second, Seager to third.3–6
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball 43–6
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Smith singled to center, Taveras scored, Seager to second, Semien to third.2–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Semien doubled to left, Kelly scored, Taveras to third.1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Wong homered to left (375 feet), Yoshida scored and Refsnyder scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Refsnyder singled to center, Hamilton scored and Rafaela scored, Yoshida to second.0–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML TEX +125 / BOS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -135
- TEX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −6 | TEX: Jose Urena: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +35 Elo | BOS 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–37 | Road vs home | 28–3224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–69 | 52–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–45 | 20–44 |
| Underdog | 27–24 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders | 55–63–1 | 62–54–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–6 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.