Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Santana hit sacrifice fly to right, Wallner scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 2Farmer tripled to center, Farmer scored on fielding error by center fielder Taveras.2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Castro homered to left center (386 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Jung hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1García singled to center, Semien scored, Smith to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -120 / TEX +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −2 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +33 Elo | MIN 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 11th of 3031–29 | Road vs home | 31–2716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–61 | 51–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 37–45 | 23–45 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 28–25 |
| Overs–unders | 62–57 | 57–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 7–3 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.