Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Heim homered to right center (383 feet), Duran scored.9–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Langford homered to left center (389 feet), Seager scored and Lowe scored.7–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 8González doubled to left, D. Jansen scored and Devers scored.4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 8D. Jansen singled to left, Wong scored, D. Jansen to second, Devers to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 8Langford scored on error, Taveras safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Hamilton, Duran safe at third on error.4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 34–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8García homered to left center (381 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6González sacrificed into double play, center to first, Yoshida scored, Devers doubled off first.2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Abreu homered to right center (410 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6García homered to left center (413 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Hamilton singled to right, Sogard scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML TEX +115 / BOS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- TEX +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −3 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +36 Elo | BOS 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–38 | Road vs home | 29–3223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–70 | 53–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–45 | 21–44 |
| Underdog | 27–25 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders | 56–63–1 | 63–54–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–7 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.