Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Langford singled to left, Lowe scored, Langford to second, Jung to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Semien homered to left (359 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Santana homered to left center (404 feet), Jeffers scored and Margot scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Jeffers homered to left (356 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Langford hit sacrifice fly to left, García scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML MIN +105 / TEX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 47.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −7 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +19 Elo | MIN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 8th of 3032–29 | Road vs home | 31–2817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–62 | 52–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–46 | 23–45 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders | 62–58 | 57–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–3 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.