Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-3
- Cody BradfordPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Triolo singled to left, Tellez scored, Cruz to second.4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Cruz tripled to center, De La Cruz scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4De La Cruz singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored and Joe scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML PIT +120 / TEX -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +32 Elo | TEX 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3029–34 | Road vs home | 33–3016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–58 | 52–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–31 | 23–49 |
| Underdog | 47–27 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders | 61–61 | 58–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–3 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.