Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Williams scored.10–3
- 8Williams scored.10–3
- 7Rivas singled to right, Moore scored, Rojas to second.10–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 110–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 7Canzone grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Raley scored, Turner out at second, Moore to third.9–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–2
- 6Bart homered to center (430 feet), Cruz scored.8–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 5Canzone homered to center (416 feet).8–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 28–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 4Raley hit sacrifice fly to center, Robles scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 4Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rivas scored, Robles to second, Robles safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Triolo.6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 4Rojas homered to center (408 feet).5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Robles doubled to left, Rivas scored on error and Rojas scored, Robles safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Cruz.4–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 34–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML SEA -175 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −23 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jake Woodford: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +20 Elo | SEA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3026–35 | Road vs home | 29–3123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–72 | 63–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–53 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 46–26 |
| Overs–unders | 52–68–2 | 60–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.