Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Victor RoblesBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Rowdy TellezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tellez hit a ground rule double, Bart scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Bart doubled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Triolo homered to left center (411 feet).2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 6De La Cruz singled to right, Bart scored on error, De La Cruz safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Raley.2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Polanco doubled to center, Rodríguez scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Tellez homered to right center (391 feet), Cruz scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Robles singled to left, Haniger scored, Rivas to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–1
- 1Kiner-Falefa homered to center (406 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -150 / PIT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- PIT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +27 Elo | SEA 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3026–34 | Road vs home | 28–3125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–71 | 62–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–52 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 45–26 |
| Overs–unders | 51–68–2 | 59–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.